Food security today is a global challenge that affects all people in every region of the world. Food insecurity will become a more significant concern as population growth and climate change go hand in hand to create an unsolvable crisis.
Climate change creates substantial challenges to our food supply chains and how we produce and distribute food globally. The growing frequency of extreme weather events has caused increasing pressure on food production systems, creating instability and uncertainty in both supply and demand.
To better understand how climate change will impact future food systems, we will review different scientific research studies from published articles, along with expert analysis, to provide insight on the interconnectedness between food systems and climate change and identify possible solutions through collaborative efforts between all people in order to sustain our planet’s food resources.
The Disruption of Agricultural Yields
The most immediate effects of global warming are decreased crop yields. While some areas further north of the equator may experience short-term increases in their growing seasons, the overall trend is toward decreased crop yields across the world. According to research conducted by Rutgers University, for each 1°C increase in mean surface air temperature across the globe, it is estimated that there will be a loss of about 120 calories per person per day in food production around the globe – approximately 4.4% of what the average person consumes today (Rutgers, 2025).
On the other hand, “carbon fertilization” (the increased yield that is achieved from the increased levels of CO₂ in the environment) may theoretically increase yield on crops, such as wheat and rice; however, there are conditions that negate the benefits of carbon fertilization and includes, extreme heat levels, drought conditions or a greater incidence of pests (MDPI, 2021; Our World in Data, 2024).
Threats to Staple Crops and Nutrition
Most of the world’s food supply comes from just six staple crops (wheat, maize (corn), rice, soybeans, barley, and cassava), and these staples are overly sensitive to changing weather patterns.
Maize (corn) is projected to see the largest decline in yield (20% to 25%) due to impacts of climate change (Our World in Data: 2024) in major agricultural regions such as the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa.
In addition to having enough food, it is important for the food we consume to provide the vitamins and minerals our bodies need. When food crops are grown in high levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂), their nutritional quality decreases; therefore, the level of zinc, iron, and protein are reduced in the food we eat; thus causing hidden hunger or malnutrition even if we eat enough calories (Food System Primer, n.d.).
Barriers to Food Access and Economic Stability
The four pillars of food security are: availability, access, utilization, and stability. The “access” to food pillar is vulnerable due to unmanaged climate changes affecting the global market and individual household income.
Food price volatility: This has been seen by the increased cost of food when farmers have had large harvest failures due to extreme weather events caused by climate change (e.g., flooding or drought) and then as those failures occur, the cost of food increases quickly and makes feeding a low-income person or family impossible (Frontiers, 2022).
The vulnerability of smallholders and producers: In places like the dry zone of Sri Lanka, farmers are not sure when or even if it will rain enough to grow food; therefore, they cannot calculate their yields during the growing season. Some farmers have lost their entire income for a year because of the unanticipated weather changes (MDPI, 2025). The lost income cycles back to those who produce food being more likely to become hungry than those who do not produce food (MDPI, 2025).
The Vicious Cycle of Food Systems
Ironically, the production of food itself contributes to the same climate change that threatens food production. The Food System Primer indicates that agricultural and non-agricultural land use is responsible for approximately one-third of all human-induced greenhouse gases (Food System Primer, n.d.) – this includes greenhouse gases such as methane, produced by animals, and nitrous oxide produced by fertilizers. As a result, because industrial agriculture uses agricultural processes that damage the environment, industrial agriculture creates additional environmental degradation, which leads to the need for more intensive and damaging agricultural practices to continue to obtain yields.
Can We Adapt?
The positive side is that adaptation is available, but limited. Farmers are making changes to adjust to these impacts by:
Changing Their Planting Date: Farmers shift their planting dates to accommodate for changes in rainfall (Our World in Data, 2024).
Changing The Type Of Crop Planted: Farmers are growing crops that can withstand heat and drought.
Using Technology: Farmers are using more efficient irrigation systems and using “Climate Smart Agriculture” to maintain healthy soils (Frontiers, 2022).
Nevertheless, non-zero emissions over the next century would result in predicted global yield losses for staples of at least 24% by 2100, even under best-case scenarios for adaptation (Rutgers, 2025).
Climate change is no longer a future concern—it is already affecting our food system today. The key for dealing with the upcoming crisis will be to have both aggressive mitigation efforts aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions now to stabilize climate change and a solid commitment to adaptation strategies for the world’s most at-risk smallholder farmers. By reevaluating our food systems today we can create a resilient and food-secure future for all.
References
Food System Primer. (n.d.). Food and climate change. Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future. https://foodsystemprimer.org/production/food-and-climate-change
Gamage, S. K. N., Niranjala, S. A. U., Upulwehera, J. M. H. M., et al. (2025). Climate change impacts on household food security in Sri Lanka’s dry zones: A qualitative analysis. MDPI, 16(2), 20. https://www.mdpi.com/2078-1547/16/2/20
Hultgren, A., et al. (2025). Climate change cuts global crop yields, even when farmers adapt. Nature (as cited by Rutgers). https://www.rutgers.edu/news/researchers-find-climate-change-threatens-global-food-supply
MDPI. (2021). Impact of climate change on agriculture and its mitigation strategies: A review. Sustainability, 13(3), 1318. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1318 (Note: Related to general MDPI findings on crop resilience).
Ritchie, H. (2024). How will climate change affect crop yields in the future? Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/climate-change-will-affect-food-production-things-can-adapt
Syed, A., et al. (2022). Uncovering the research gaps to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change on food security: A review. Frontiers in Plant Science / ScienceDirect. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096322000808
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